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20121014
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PBS
Oct 13, 2012 12:00am PDT
so gladly >> generally, people who are interested in talking about politics love to engage, so they talk to us quite a bit. >> reporter: but since every pollster claims to come up with a scientific random sample eventually, how can the results be romney up by four and obama down by three at the very same time? newly minted phd economist david rothschild works at microsoft research in manhattan. rothschild looks at economic models, state polls and markets. his currently gives obama a 65% chance to win. >> i never sweat too much about any individual poll because there's too much noise. >> reporter: too much noise meaning... >> too much movement. >> reporter: take the so-called bumps - after a vice- presidential pick, or a convention. or take the first presidential debate. say you're a democrat, the morning after. a pollster calls you, you dont want anything to do with it, you're upset, you hang up that phone. they call another guy, the exact same demographics as you because they're trying to fill some sort of demographic hole or whatnot, he's a republican, hes stoked. the same pe
Search Results 0 to 0 of about 1